How to Define a Season

There is a lot that hangs in the balance on Saturday. As far as records and such are concerned, a win would guarantee bowl eligibility and pretty much solidify a winning record in conference play. Sadly, those things are not yet set in stone. But a win this weekend would do far more than just help the Dawgs in terms of record and standings. The “success” of a season is determined by far more than just a team’s final record. It’s not just if you win or lose, but how you win or lose and how you fare in the “big games” of your season.

While the Dawgs play 12 regular season games every season each year’s campaign is really defined by 3 or 4 of the games.Typically, the games that determine the success of a season are the rivalry games and games against the elite competition in the conference. That’s what has made this season hurt. Ugly losses against our two biggest divisional foes have been the worst of it. Add on the last second loss to LSU, a team widely recognized to be in the upper echelon of the conference, and it’s just been one crushing blow after another.

Think back to the really good years of Georgia football in recent memory: 2007 had wins against Florida, Auburn and Tech. 2005 contained big wins against Tennessee and Tech and of course the SEC Championship game over LSU. 2002 will always be remembered for the wins over Bama and Auburn. Similarly,  the down years are remembered for losses to the very same teams. Despite going 9-3 last year we all saw it as a disappointment because of losses to Florida, Tech and Bama, unmistakably the three biggest games on the schedule last season.

Heading into the last 3 weeks off football this season the Dawgs still have two season-defining games left to play. While most fans may not hold as much spite for Auburn as they do Florida or even Tech it’s a rivalry that has always had huge implications. The games in 2002 and 2007 are the most notable examples of this. But a game that’s often forgotten in this rivalry is the 2006 contest in Auburn. You may have forgotten by now but losses to Vandy and Kentucky in 2006 caused questioning of Coach Richt and the direction of the program very similar to the cries we’ve heard this season.

A Georgia team with an offense that seemed incapable of scoring on anyone and a defense that couldn’t make stops when they needed them most headed to the Plains for an early kickoff with the 5th-ranked team in the land. Coach Richt later admitted that he went into that game thinking they had the worst game plan of his time here at UGA and convinced there was no way we could win. Somehow they pulled it off.

The Dawgs then faced a ranked Georgia Tech squad to finish the season and beat them between the hedges, sadly ending the Reggie Ball era of Georgia Tech football. That late season surge was enough to get the Dawgs a spot in the Chick-fil-a Bowl in Atlanta that year, which seemed like a great gig after losing 4 out of 5 games in the middle of the season. The Dawgs faced their third consecutive ranked team in Virginia Tech, fell behind early and then rallied back for a fun and memorable win in Atlanta.

That 2006 season will not be the most celebrated year of the Richt era by any standards. But we went into the offseason with a notably different taste in our mouths than what we had after last season and what we feel right now.

If Coach Richt and the team want to end this season on a similar note, inspiring hope in the fanbase for seasons to come, a win on Saturday is of great importance. Truthfully, if the Dawgs are even going to win one of the two remaining rivalry games, this is our best shot. Beating Tech is very possible, but I think it becomes less probable if the team is dealt another humbling loss this weekend.

In spite of all that has gone wrong this year, and there has been a lot, we can all agree that the young talent on the field gives promise for the future of the program. How encouraging would it be to see that talent began to gel and compete at the highest level in the last few games of this season? There are no championships left to play for this season. Most of the team’s preseason goals are out the window. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to play for at all. Ending the year on a three-game winning streak, besting two rivals, and landing in a good bowl could do Coach Richt’s offseason PR campaign a world of good.

Remembering Tubs

We all know that the single thing which makes college football so great is the passion that surrounds it. It comes in all forms- blinding love for your own team, terrible agony after losses, silly anxiety before big games and the unique joy of a big win. One of the funniest and least explainable qualities of passionate college fans is their totally irrational hatred for certain teams and individuals.

As I’ve said before I wasn’t raised a Dawg. My family could have had those “house divided” license plates on the fronts of our cars (but we thankfully didn’t.) One side of my family was full of Alabama fans (and even some Bama grads) while the other was full of Ole Miss alumni who rarely missed a weekend in The Grove. Given my age and those loyalties I began to follow both the Rebels and the Tide circa 1995. At that time Ole Miss was led by one Tommy Tuberville. He coached Ole Miss to relative success and the Rebel faithful, as always, thought they were on the way back to relevance under his leadership.

But naturally bigger, better programs came calling when he had success in

Can you believe those idiots fell for the "pine box" line?

Oxford. At first he denied any interest in leaving, infamously stating “They ‘ll have to carry me out of here in a pine box,” for him to leave Ole Miss. Two days later he took the Auburn job. I was at my grandparents house when this all transpired and from the way my grandfather talked about him in the aftermath you would have thought he was Sherman’s accomplice in burning Atlanta. As a lifelong Ole Miss fan he wasn’t just mad. He was personally offended. And if he was, then by darn, so was I. Daddy Guy, as I called him, said he would never cheer for Tuberville again and I decided I wouldn’t either.

For me, the half-Rebel and half-Tide fan, this resolution to cheer against him was made even easier by the fact that he went to Auburn. Only a few years as a Bama fan had me convinced there was no more depraved group of people on the planet than Auburn fans. In my mind his decision was the equivalent to spitting in the face of America to join the Communists (only I didn’t know what Communists were yet). As the years wore on it only got easier to hate him. As you might recall he had great success against the Tide. He became my greatest nemesis in college football.

Auburn’s 13-0 season in 2004 was really the peak of my hatred. We all know that Uncle Verne and CBS have an annual love affair with some player, coach or team in the SEC. In 2004 it was Auburn, and more specifically Tubs. If I heard Verne talk one more time about Bobby Lowder’s secret trip to interview Bobby Petrino behind Tuberville’s back, always making Tubs the embattled yet victorious victim, I might have fallen out of love with SEC football.

Just a year later, in November of 2005 I was a freshman at UGA, with my allegiances in transition to the Dawgs. We welcomed Auburn between the hedges that Fall for the first night game of my college career. After a loss to Florida we had a chance to clinch the East that night in the biggest home game of the season. I attended the Dawg Walk with friends, cheered for DJ Shockley’s healed knee and then headed straight into the stadium for a good seat in the student section.

As we walked along the hedges toward the band I looked out onto the field to see Tuberville sitting on the visitor’s bench, not more than 10 yards from me, doing a radio interview. As the rest of my group walked on I leaned over the hedges and began to yell his name as loud as I could:

“TOMMY!! TUBS!! TOOOMMMYY!! TUBS!! TUBERVILLE!!” on and on for at least a few minutes. He finished his radio interview and I yelled even louder. And then wonder of all wonders, he turned around to see who was yelling at him. To this day all I can reason is that I was right in front of the Auburn section, in the northwest corner, in a relatively empty and quiet stadium almost an hour and a half before kickoff and he thought an Auburn fan was trying to get his attention.

However it happened it was a magical moment. He looked right at me and next thing I knew our eyes locked, his facial expression saying,”What the heck are you yelling at me for?” And time stood still. All the hatred. All the terrible things I had said about him from the couch watching Auburn play. All the times I had bashed him in talking to other fans. I had one golden opportunity to tell him how I felt. And I froze. After a pause of what felt like hours all I could muster was:

“I CAN’T STAND YOU!!”

He gave me a confused look, shook his head and walked away. And I stood pressed up against the hedges, shocked at the events that had just transpired.

We lost that game but after that moment my hatred kind of began to taper off. I had gotten things off my chest. The next year I watched the Dawgs knock off his 5th-ranked Tigers behind 3 Tre Battle interceptions. In 2007 we went Blackout on him in an unforgettable game. In 2008 I sat in Jordan-Hare to watch the Dawgs win again and see his proud march to unemployment firsthand.

And four year later Auburn returns to Athens without him at the helm. And I must admit… I kind of miss ole Tubs. He’ll always hold a special place in my heart. Everyone remembers their first love. Tubs was my “first hate” in SEC football. The hatred was stupid and irrational ( as was yelling at him.) But it was part of my formative years as an SEC fan. I have to admit I’m now too objective about the game to carry that kind of unbridled distaste for almost anyone (you might become an exception Kiffin), but it sure is fun to laugh about in retrospect.

Thanks for the fun, Tubs. I sure did love watching the Dawgs whoop your teams the last few years.

Processing Week 10

It may have just been Tennessee Tech, but wasn’t it fun to win convincingly? A 28-0 lead just minutes into the second quarter set the good mood and the shutout by the defense was encouraging even if their offense was no real threat.

Hopefully the game created some confidence for the running backs and run blockers. Ealey looked good, as did King.

How fast is Branden Smith? Was there any doubt when he turned that corner that he was gone?

Those young defensive ends were pretty impressive. What was a position of incredible weakness last year appears to have solid depth for the foreseeable future now.

What golfer wouldn’t take Drew Butler’s leg as his pitching wedge within 60 yards? The kid is nearly flawless.

The students who left seats above the band open ought to be ashamed of themselves. I know it’s a down year, but your ticket cost you $7 and you can walk to the game. Just go.

I think it’s clear why Logan Gray hasn’t stolen to starting job from Cox yet. Zone read runs can only take a team so far. He’s clearly not the QB of the future for the Dawgs.

It was a day that appeared to be without marquee matchups outside of Bama-LSU, but ended up being quite entertaining. Fun upsets, exiting endings, and all the other reasons we love college football.

Congrats CBS and ESPN, you got the Bama-Florida championship game you’ve been dreaming of since June. I have to admit I’m excited about it too. I’ll be rooting for both to win out. Two 12-0 teams will make for an awesome game in Atlanta.

Georgia has had a rough year do doubt, but might I suggest a few fans bases that have even more reason to be frustrated: Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Michigan, even Notre Dame perhaps.

Any other thoughts from the day?

It’s Auburn week so get your hate on. It might be our last real shot at beating an annual rival this fall (though I still believe Tech is inconsistent enough to give us a shot).

Week 10 Preview:

It’s been five weeks since we’ve spent a Saturday in Sanford Stadium. And my what a long five weeks it’s been. The last time I sat on those metal bleachers it was in a dejected daze after Charles Scott dashed into the endzone to steal a win. You have to wonder if the last five weeks might have played out any differently if AJ Green’s catch down by the bridge had been the last memorable play of that game.

Since that time we’ve endured a humiliating loss in Knoxville, another humbling defeat in Jacksonville and the general feelings about the direction of the program have taken a noticeable dip. October 2009 wasn’t the best month to be a Dawgs fan. Or Mark Richt. Or Joe Cox. Or Willie Martinez.

But Saturday is Homecoming and the scrimmage with Tennessee Tech should be just what the doctor ordered for our dejected, wounded pups. It’s honestly the first sure win of the year and the only one on the entire 12-game slate.

Hopefully such an inferior opponent will leave the Dawgs capable of seizing that elusive “complete game” that they haven’t been able to find all year. This would be a great time for the team to begin turning the ship in some of the major areas of struggle. One has to figure we can win the turnover battle this week. And with all the talent on the offensive side of the ball maybe this will be the week when they can drive up and down the field free of stalls, costly penalties, turnovers and the like. Maybe the defense will even re-introduce the Bulldog Nation to the three-and-out this week. If I’m honest, I’m least hopeful about that last one. I worry that we’ll still see blown assignments. It’s literally become a habit.

But there’s no reason to have a cynic’s attitude about everything this weekend. We all should be legitimately excited to see deeper into the depth chart this week, as younger players who are trapped behind veterans should get notably more snaps than normal. Keep your program on hand so you can look up the numbers of youngsters like Marlon Brown, Sanders Commins, Abry Jones, Michael Gilliard, Arthur Lynch, Rantavious Wooten, Christian Robinson, and Makiri Pugh. If things go according to plan we should see lots of inexperienced players on the field, especially in places that will see big turnover next season like the secondary. The talent level of this team has been questioned frequently in the last week. Hopefully Saturday will be a peak at a promising future.

In the end Homecoming will be fun, as it always is, and the game will only be part of the festivities. But it should be the first really fun game for the team in a while too. Dawgs win 45-13.

Players to Watch:

Logan Gray – To include Gray in the players to watch section is somewhat of a no brainer.  Many have called for Cox’s ousting and for Gray to be established as the starter.  However, most of the Sanford faithful won’t necessarily be watching him to see if he’s successful on Saturday, they’ll be watching to see if there’s a future with him down the road.  If Gray’s play so far is any indication as to how game ready he is, it could be an interesting series on Saturday.  How he plays has the ability to restore or detract some confidence for the Bulldog Nation

Quinton Banks – Quinton has battled injuries his whole career, but we repeatedly hear about his big play ability from practice.  It was great to see him get a good lick in at the Vandy game.  Banks is a player to watch not just because of the possibility of him playing on Saturday, but because with the graduation of Bryan Evans and the great possibility of Reshad Jones leaving for the NFL after this season, Banks may find himself roaming the field as Georgia’s starting safety opposite Bacarri Rambo in 2010.

Special Teams – We repeatedly have a hard time finding someone to highlight on special teams each week, but we realized so far we have no given Blair Walsh his due.  Regardless of how kickoff coverage has gone this year, Walsh has done his part, both in kickoffs and field goals.  Great job kid.  What’ll also be interesting is to see if Georgia trots anybody besides Prince Miller out as punt return on Saturday.  With all this talk of backups getting playing time, why not start with punt returns?  Just sayin’.

Why Black was Bad

I really care a lot more about the results of the game against Florida than about what our team was wearing. But the fact that we looked terrible doing it only added insult to injury.

Any sensible fan knows better than to believe that the color of any jersey can determine the outcome of a game. Even our beloved silver britches don’t actually make our boys run any faster or tackle any better. So if you want to blame the loss on ugly black helmets then you’re too easily fooled. But I don’t think that’s the case for many fans. Willie isn’t fooling anyone any more.

All that being said, those hideous black helmets and pants, were a terrible idea for multiple reasons. Please, allow me to explain.

First, did the coaches ever really believe they needed to do more to amp up the players for this game? If so, that’s a terrible indictment on them. I watched most of warm-ups and our guys were as energized as I’ve ever seen them. After the humiliating defeat last year and the timeouts they shouldn’t have needed any extra boost and they didn’t appear to require one.

Secondly, those jerseys sent a clear message to Florida- we can’t beat you just being Georgia. Sure, if we had won yesterday we’d be 2 for 3 in the series since 2007 against the Gators, but the precedent would be set that we could only win with some gimmick motivation. It would be clear that we can’t just do a better job of preparing (even with an extra week) and come in and win because we are the better team and we know it.

If we’re going to keep fishing for motivational ploys, let’s at least be imaginative enough to come up with something new. On Saturday we wore black, one of our colors not usually highlighted in our normal uniforms, and had a rowdy time jumping around and dancing on the sideline when the game got close. Sound familiar? After the 2007 season I was convinced that Richt was a motivational genius. The endzone celebration that year appeared to quite possibly be a turning point in Georgia football, a defining moment of the Richt era for sure. Then, the 2007 Auburn Blackout was perfectly executed. Anticipation built all week as the plan that had been in place since summer workouts came to fruition. When the team busted out of the locker room it was quite possibly my most unforgettable moment as a Georgia football fan. We didn’t win that game because or the Sugar Bowl because of the black jerseys, but it sure was fun to win because we were better than everyone else and look mighty fine doing it. But here we are now, two years later, and our team hasn’t “gotten up” for a big game in almost two whole season. They apparently cannot be motivated, or at least cannot be prepared well enough to let any motivation bear fruit on the field.

But the last reason the black helmets and pants were a bad idea was because they totally devalued the black jerseys that were unveiled two years ago. I realize that a lot of fans couldn’t care less about this, but let me explain why it matters in terms of recruiting. Ever since that Auburn game recruits have loved those black jerseys. When Branden Smith came on his official visit last winter they had a black No. 1 jersey with his name on it waiting on him in the locker room. When Orson Charles singed last March he did so wearing a black jersey. Those black tops have been gold on the recruiting trial. But now no one will care. We’ve got every piece of the uniform in every color. Apparently we think we are Oregon with slightly fewer options and less obnoxious colors. Instead of holding on to those black tops for a special games, and to entice prep stars to Athens, they’re just one of any number of uniform combinations now. If anything there will be more animosity from fans toward anything other than the traditional uniforms after this debacle.

And lastly, they just didn’t look good. Those black jerseys looked amazing with the red helmets and silver britches. I don’t claim to be the king of swag, but I just don’t see any recruit’s jaw dropping (in a good way), leaving them thinking “I want to play for Georgia so I have a chance to look good winning in that.”

The helmets and pants have nothing at all to do with why we lost. But even if we had won in them, there was so very little to gain by wearing them. If we had won we would be a team that can only win with emotional gimmicks and no longer has such a thing as a “traditional” home or away uniform. With a loss, well… You know how silly they feel after a humiliating loss.

Week 9 Preview: What’s scarier, the Gators defense or Marc Curles?

It’s either the best or worst weekend of the year for us.  In the summer, as we predict our team’s chances for the upcoming season, one common denominator is that we end every conversation with, “I just want to beat Florida so bad.”  This year has a hazy feel to it.  Most Dawg fans are optimistic about the team’s chances given several factors we’ll get to in a second, yet a slice of perspective pie is served whenever the conversation is had due to the Dawgs lack of success in several areas.  Bottom line, we just have to go in there and play our most complete, disciplined game of the year.  

Reason #1 to be optimistic is the obvious extra time the team’s had given the bye week.  In 2007, I remember standing next to Vince Vance in Snelling Dining Hall waiting on my order to be made at the grill.  I asked him if he and the team had enjoyed their bye week and he simply responded with, “yeah.  We’re gonna be ready fro Florida.”  How can you not love that?  Richt has shown himself worthy coming out of bye weeks (except for Tech last year) and lets hope there’s some more magic behind the stoic face for Saturday.

Reason #2 to be optimistic is that the Gators have been less than stellar their past two games.  But should that excite Dawg fans?  I submit that it should not.  Be wary of this form of optimism.  Tebow is ticked and is tired of his team underachieving.  I know there’s all this talk about how Florida’s never faced this kind of adversity before, but I just see the fact that it happened twice in a row as bad for us.  Now the coaches can spin it towards the message of , “it’s time to wake up.”  That scares me a bit.  It is Halloween after all right?

Other storylines for the game include the Dawgs’ ability to minimize mental mistakes.  This includes not just turnovers, but false starts, blown assignments, blah blah blah.  And when we say “minimize” that’s actually a hopeful cry for a big zero in that department.  Other key issues that could be helpful to the Dawgs include our kickoff coverage (keeping Florida on their side of the 50 at least after kickoffs) and kickoff return (Boykin and the gang setting up good field position for the offense).  

I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty sure we’ll know within the 2nd offensive series if our guys came ready to play.  And that’s the last storyline of the week: start fast and stay fast.  In 2007, everyone talks about The Celebration as the big key to Georgia playing the way we did.  But I say it was instead MoMass’s long touchdown that was more important for the tone of play for the team.  Why?  Because after we kicked off from our 7, Florida scored soon after, making it a 7-7 ball game.  But quickly there after, Stafford found MoMass on the longest reception of his career as the Dawgs countered with a punch of their own.  That set the tone for the game, and in order for Georgia to pull off the upset, something very similar has to happen.

This may be a first on BHN, but after long discussions, we feel like in order to stay in touch with reality we have to give the Gators to upper hand in this matchup.  Gators 38 Dawgs 23.

Players to watch:

Joe Cox- If this game rests in the hands on any one player, for either team, it’s Cox. When he’s played well this year, things have gone well for the Dawgs. When he has struggled the Dawgs have barely slipped by bad teams and been beaten three time. In those ugly games he’s been prone to turn the ball over. If he does that this week we’re doomed. But he also has to be more than just an effective game manager. He’s got to make some plays. Florida’s secondary is on the list of all-time best defensive units. But we know we can’t run the ball all game, we don’t have the line or backs for that. If the Dawgs win Saturday it will be because Cox had the best game of his career.

Geno Atkins- Florida’s offense this year has taken a step back in time. After Dan Mullen stayed on the cutting edge with the spread for a few years in Gainesville their new offensive coordinator is really struggling. One of his favorite plays thus far is a straight dive up the middle with Tebow or one of their blistering fast backs. And we might actually be strong enough up the middle to defend that relatively well. Atkins was SEC defensive player of the week coming off the bench against Vandy. The Dawgs will need him to play big in the middle again this week and get into Tebow’s personal space Saturday to keep Florida’s OC lost with his play calling.

Kick coverage team- We all know how amazing Florida’s special teams are. Meyer makes them a priority, the best players compete to play on them, blah blah blah. But if the Dawgs can make Florida drive over 50 yards for points most of the day we’ll have a shot in this game. If we give them the ball at the 40 consistently we’ll have no chance. The best possible scenario is that Florida’s returners terrify Jon Fabris and he tells Walsh to kick touchbacks every time. But that’s very doubtful. Georgia covered kicks against Vandy better than any time in recent memory. But Florida has just a tad more athleticism. The Dawgs must still contain them, though, to keep the game close.

The Best Motivational Ploy Yet

The Georgia defense has lacked a lot in the last two seasons. Often times the schemes haven’t been competitive. The fundamentals of tackling have been painfully bad at points. Sometimes it’s seemed that we don’t even have the best personnel on the field (I’m looking at you Bryan Evans). But the biggest indictment of all on the defense has been the lack of heart and hustle at times. In certain moments (or quarters) it’s like they just haven’t cared. Late in some games they played like they’d given up all together.

It’s no secret that defense is played primarily with passion. If you have to differentiate them, offensive players are supposed to be the ones with brains, the tacticians. The defenders ought to have hearts of unconquerable courage and aggression. But the squads of late have lacked the spirit or Erk Russell at times.

This week the Dawgs return to the place of one of the great motivational ploys in college football history. The Celebration was the spark for not only a memorable game, but an amazing season. It was the definitive turning point that led to a second half overflowing with passion. That black jersey-wearing, Soulja Boy- dancing 2007 team became a thrill to watch. And even the defense played well. Remember the pain they subjected Hawaii’s QB to? It was glorious!

As the Dawgs prepare for another Cocktail Party they could really use another emotional boost. Even coming off a bye week this has been an emotionally draining season, for Willie Martinez’s boys especially. But they should need no dancing ploys this weekend. On Saturday they should play for, as Jeff Owens says it best, “what it means to wear the G.” They are literally playing on behalf of their Bulldog forefathers, in an attempt to protect the record of the greatest Bulldog to ever wear the G on his helmet.

Let’s make no mistake. Barring a season-ending injury Tebow will break Walker’s rushing TD record before the season’s end. But like many others have said, it’s not exactly apples to apples. Stats from Herschel’s three Sugar Bowls aren’t in the record books. And all his damage came in three ten-game seasons, not four. The biggest difference in my opinion, as my BHN co-pilot put it, Herschel Walker never went 9-4. Nonetheless, the record will be in Tebow’s hands sooner than later.

But the Dawgs don’t need to let it happen this weekend. It would be far to cruel for Tebow to surpass Herschel in a game against the red and black. The Dawgs have actually defended in the red zone pretty well thus far, forcing lots of fields goals and even forcing teams away with zero points a few times. But when the Gators get within Tebow’s battering ram range they need to hunker down like no time in recent memory. What a great testament that would be to the tradition of wearing the G.

Protecting that record is certainly not as valuable as a win. But if the Dawgs lose and all the Bulldog faithful have to watch Tebow break the record firsthand that will just be too cruel. Then again, if the Dawgs win, and the record remains Herschel’s for at least one more week wouldn’t’ that just make they day all the more memorable.

It’s improbable, but imagine this: the Dawgs defensive line stuffing Tebow on the goal line two or three times as time runs out to seal the upset. Could life possible get any sweeter? The Dawgs don’t have great odds at winning or keeping Tebow out of the endzone Saturday, but it’s certainly something to rally behind.

Richt and Martinez shouldn’t have any trouble provoking a tenacious defense this week.

Do We Have the Gators Where We Want Them?

Before we get started with any real analysis of the upcoming Cocktail Party let’s all just take a minute to remember how awesome October 27, 2007 was. Just soak it in…

But that was two years ago. Since that time the Gators have claimed another national title and might be on the road to their second consecutive title if the Dawgs can’t do anything about it. And in certain ways you have to like Georgia’s chances to spoil their fun. There are some factors that seem to favor them.

First off, the Dawgs are coming off a bye week while the Gators played a trying night road game this past weekend. The Dawgs staff should get tons more time to look at the Gators film than vice versa. History suggests that the bye week is significant in this rivalry.

Secondly, the Gators are banged up. They played it safe and kept some injured players out at Mississippi State to give them another week of rest for the real Dawgs in the conference. But it wouldn’t take much for Spikes to tweak is groin again for their defensive line to develop some holes due to injury.

Also, after the Mississippi State game Urban Meyer even admitted that the team is bending under the pressure of the season’s expectations and trying to “force it” in lots of ways. It’s obvious. Tebow can’t throw a ball away on a busted play. They’re committing dumb over-aggressive penalties. Their play-calling can’t find any rhythm. In fact their offensive is altogether pretty ineffective right now. Especially given the talent they have. And Tebow not facing the media after his two INTs that went for touchdowns shows the pressure is affecting the team significantly.

In fact, the Dawgs are catching Tebow at one of the low points of his career statistically. His last two games have been interception-ridden affairs. He created more points for Mississippi State in Starkville than for his own team. The fact the his name is in Heisman consideration with the numbers this season is preposterous.

With all these factors combined a few UGA players have suggested that all the pressure is on Florida this weekend. And as 17-point underdogs in Vegas that’s true in many ways. The good news is that Florida has come far short of covering the spread with relative consistency in SEC contests this season. Arkansas, Mississippi State and Tennessee were all even bigger underdogs than our Dawgs and kept things close.

But let’s make no mistake. To this point Florida is the better team, with greater talent and more accomplished on the field. They’ve already beaten the LSU team that barely got away and the Tennessee team the killed Georgia. Worse yet, Tebow is going to spend the whole week hearing how he’s struggling lately. I think we all know how he responds to such motivation. Even though they are ranked first the Florida coaches can play the “disrespect card” this week. I would much rather have faced Tebow last week. There’s little doubt that his focus this week will be on minimizing mistakes.

And that defense. It gives me nightmares. They fly to the ball at every position. I honestly expect every pass from the opponents to end up the hands of their DBs. I will probably cringe at every pass Cox lofts on Saturday. If the Dawgs are to win this games they’ve got to hope the defense can hold and even find ways to score some points one their own.

The prospects of a Dawgs win on Saturday really aren’t terrible. This week is going to be soaked in cautious optimism. It appears the Dawgs will catch the Gators in a rather advantageous place, all things considered. But I won’t be setting my heart on a win. There is still a lot to overcome.

What are the Odds?

The Dawgs technically hit their halfway point before last week’s game, but this bye week has really made this week feel more like halftime for the season. The break comes at a great time. And not just because we get two weeks to prep for Florida. Seven games in is really an ideal place for the coaches to evaluate the team and re-evaluate the season. Any earlier and they would have too small of a sample to reach real conclusions. If it were later there might be foundational issues that couldn’t get dealt with until far too late.

If you recall, the break came at the same time in the 2007 season, effective adjustments were made and it was almost a new team from that point out. Last year the Dawgs played 11 straight games before the bye. You surely recall the problems that lingered week-to-week for literally the duration of the season.

So we don’t really know what we’re going to get for these last five contests. In fact the possibilities for what lies ahead are boundless. Here are some thing we could possible see, some probable, some not, from here on out.

A win over the Gators- 35% chance. This year really would start to mirror 2007 if the Dawgs can reel in a win. There are similarities- Florida is depending on Tebow too much, their defense is getting banged up, they don’t have a bye week this year. I’m not getting my hopes too high but it could happen.

A win over Auburn- 70% chance. I was really starting to worry about the rest of our season when they hit 5-0 and we were struggling to mightily. But for now they appear to be in a tailspin. If they regroup I worry about Martinez vs. Gus Malzahn. If they stay on the trajectory of the last two weeks we’ll be just fin.

A win over Tech- 50% chance. The team really wants this game. They are plenty tired of hearing about last year. Tech’s offense continues to thrive, but their defense is a real liability thus far. If the pieces fall into place they could even be headed to a BCS bowl this year. Wouldn’t it be fun to rain on that parade?

A starting QB other than Joe Cox- 20% chance. Outside of injury I think Richt has made it clear that this probably isn’t happening. Cox isn’t the most talented playcaller in Bulldog history for sure, but he’s literally constantly coaching on the field with all the young players out there. If for on other reason he’ll stay out there for that reason. And if we still haven’t seen Murray after the Florida game I say there’s no chance his redshirt gets burned.

The emergence of true starter at running back- 35% chance. If it’s going to be anyone at this point it’s probably Caleb King. If he can stay healthy he seems to be steadily improving. His pass blocking is worlds better than last year. Samuel got his shot but couldn’t claim the position. Ealey may be great, but still seems a bit too green to truly blossom this year.

Willie Martinez saving his job- 30% chance. This really has more to do with Richt’s loyalty than the opportunity Martinez has to win people back over. The only way his performance keeps him employed is if they play lights out against good Florida, Auburn and Tech offenses and just smother Kentucky too. Give up a really big day to any of those (like last year’s Florida and Tech games) and he’s officially canned.

Rennie Curran finishes the year leading the SEC in tackles- 90% chance. Barring injury this should happen, proving him to quite possibly be the most valuable defensive player in the conference. He is the glue holding this defense together right now.

Alabama has it’s second consecutive 12-0 season- 75% chance. There are still lots of stumbling blocks ahead. LSU comes to Tuscaloosa next weekend. And of course anything can happen in the Iron Bowl. After losing focus in the end of last season I don’t see this team getting caught daydreaming.

Florida has it’s first undefeated season- 30% chance. This team is very beatable. They could still lose in Jacksonville or in Columbia in November. Even if they go 12-0 I’d certainly give Bama the edge in the SEC Championship game. Please, fate, don’t let Tebow accomplish this!

Any other predictions about what will or won’t happen? It should be a fun second half!

VanGorder and Martinez: Can You Really Compare Eras?

Let me begin by saying that the purpose of this post is not to defend Willie Martinez. There was a time when I wanted and tried to defend Willie, but that time has passed and I, like many others, believe it’s probably time to head a new direction in terms of defensive philosophy and coaching. My reasoning on the issue should be clear by the time you’re done reading here. That being said, we as fans often need some perspective when things aren’t going well and my hope is to provide that here.

Many Georgia fans, in the agony of watching Willie’s bend-don’t-break-but-sometimes-collapse defense, have mourned the loss of Brian VanGorder and the Georgia defenses from the early part of the Richt era. When VanGorder arrived as defensive coordinator in Athens he had never coached anywhere but directional schools (Central Florida, Central Michigan, Western Illinois). He inherited a great crop of defensive talent in Athens and made an immediate impact. In 2002, the banner year of the Richt era by most accounts, he led the best defense in the SEC and the fourth best scoring defense in the nation, giving up only 37 points in the final 7 games of that season. (Martinez, by contrast, has given up that many points in 7 individual games since the beginning of last season). VanGorder was named Assistant Coach of the Year in 2003. In his time at UGA six Georgia defenders were taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. He was one of the great coaches in Georgia history.

When VanGorder left Athens the former secondary coach, Martinez, was named his successor, in the Richtian family-program tradition. As you well know the defense has been in steady decline since that time. I don’t know that it’s all his fault (he may not have the talent to work with that VanGorder did), but he’s the boss of the defense so it lands squarely on his shoulders. Many fans, wanting a simple answer to their questions about the Dawgs’ defensive ineptitude have simply looked at the numbers in scoring defense and total defense, compared VanGorder and Martinez and arrived at the conclusion that Martinez’s defensive squads aren’t even a shadow of the units from Richt’s first four years in Athens.

But it’s really not quite that simple. When we compare eras of college football, whether the 1950s versus today or the early 2000s versus today, we forget too easily how much and how quickly the game of football changes. VanGorder’s last year between the hedges was 2004. Think of all the changes in the SEC in the four-plus season since: spread offenses, Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, Gus Malzahn, Paul Johnson (ACC, I know, but for our sakes he matters), Steve Spurrier, Bobby Petrino, Ryan Mallet, the Wildcat, Andre Woodson for goodness sakes. This isn’t your grandpa’s SEC. It’s not VanGorder’s SEC anymore either.

College football offenses have exploded in the last half decade. And the SEC has been no exception. While VanGorder feasted on squads coaches by the likes Ron Zook and Mike Shula poor Martinez has to gameplan for legitimate offensive geniuses a few times every year.

No one can say with any real certainty how VanGorder would have faired against these offenses if he were still in Athens today. Defensive coordinators across the country are being made to look the fool by all the offensive innovation we’ve seen lately. Martinez may be looking worse than some others, but no one can say for sure that VanGorder would have stayed ahead of the curve. It’s impossible to know how his defensive philosophy would have stood up today.

This much we do know: VanGorder isn’t about to leave his job with the Falcons to come back to Athens. So there’s no sense in laying in bed at night dreaming of David Pollack destroying quarterbacks from every position on the field. What we don’t know is how much better any future defensive coordinator could do. Unless we go get Ellis Johnson or Charlie Strong or some coordinator who knows the SEC inside and out we can’t be certain to upgrade.

At this point the only thing that isn’t hypothetical guessing about what could have been or what could be, is that Martinez hasn’t been able to keep up. The offenses of the SEC have passed him by. Missing the VanGorder days doesn’t accomplish anything now. And while there is no garuntee that change means improvement I think it’s clear that it’s worth the calculated risk. We don’t even have to get another VanGorder to upgrade at this point.