Wild Wild West

We’ve made it to July. Only two more football deprived months to go. The weeks of prognosticating are actually starting to wind down and the guessing is becoming slightly more educated.

As all the publications and web sites begin to offer up their preseason predictions it’s becoming increasingly obvious that the SEC divisions are going to be very different races this year. In the East, Florida is everyone’s favorite. In fact it won’t surprise me at all if the Gators are the unanimous pick to win the East at SEC Media Days later this month.

After the Gators the Dawgs will probably be a near unanimous pick to play runner-up in the East. I’ve heard that many Georgia players have their hearts set on making it back to the Georgia Dome this year. And I won’t say it can’t happen, but there have been years with much better odds. The rest of the East will in all likelihood  range between mediocre and bad. South Carolina will probably be  a half-step above the rest while Tennessee will try to stay out of the basement the Vandy and Kentucky normally share. If the final standings in the East differ much from that there will be lots of surprised SEC fans out there.

The West, on the other hand, is wide open. The more I look at this race the more I’m intrigued by it. Make no mistake Mississippi State will be traditionally terrible as Dan Mullen’s system will look altogether awkward in its first year. Auburn will be gloriously bad again too. And Arkansas will be notably improved but still not in contention for a division title. That leaves Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss to battle it out. And quite a battle it could be.

The thing that makes it so fascinating to me is that you know every team is going to be good. But there are enough unknown variables for each team that you can’t say with any confidence that any of them might be great. Here are just a few of the variables that could determine the outcome of the West:

In the case of Bama, the reigning division champs, a lot hasn’t changed from the squad that shocked everyone last year. The defense will certainly be stout again as Mount Cody will anchor another veteran, proven squad. What does change though could huge effects. First, the foundation of the offense last year,

Most of Bama's QB experience has come against...Bama

an excellent offensive line, will look very different and be much less experienced.  Secondly, they will have a new and very inexperienced QB. The offense is a total wild card at this point. Also, as Saban’s recruiting classes continue to get stronger there is no guessing which freshmen might make an impact this year.

Ole Miss is the “favorite” right now to win the West,  if there is one, based on their performance last year. I’ll take a pat on the back by reminding long-time readers that I was big on Ole Miss before last season, knowing Coach O had aligned lots of talent and that Houston Nutt is one of the best in game coaches

Ole Miss will trust this man to manage expectations in 2009

around (he just doesn’t recruit or manage boosters that well.) But I’m not sold this year. This team feels too much like the 2008 Dawgs to succeed. They have virtually all the major players coming back. They are getting lots of love. And they have no idea how to handle it. Ole Miss is the only team in the West that hasn’t played for an SEC Championship since the league went to 12 teams in 1992.  The biggest stage Ole Miss has seen in the modern SEC era was a game against LSU in Oxford during Eli Manning’s senior year and two Cotton Bowl victories. I would love them to prove me wrong as I have a big soft spot for the Rebs, but I’m just skeptical about them putting it all together.

The team that I’m increasingly interested in watching is LSU. Some might

The aftermath of a rare LSU home loss

argue  that the 2008 season was even more disappointing for the Bayou Bengals than for the Dawgs, as they played sub-.500 ball in the SEC and lost multiple times at home, which is quite the rarity. Most of their woes came courtesy of their problems at QB. But if you watched them destroy Tech in the Chick-fil-a Bowl you know that has been at least partially solved. LSU has a lot of talent returning and they could really be the dark horse in this race. Their biggest obstacle will be that they have to travel to Oxford and Tuscaloosa if they want to be in the mix.

It’s still far too early for me to make any kind of pick between these teams. But like I said before, they should all have enough talent to be fun to watch. And their matchups with one another will provide some good games spread across the schedule. And for the Dawgs sake, hopefully the race in the East can stay as interesting.