Home Away From Home

One of the things that makes collegiate athletics great is the effect of home crowds. The passion at the collegiate level is usually heard a little more clearly and loudly. And the field doesn’t hold seasoned professionals that are hard to faze. The players subjected to these atmospheres are often teenagers, young men who history has shown can be shaken by the roars of thousands.

Most SEC fans know that no coach takes his players into opponent’s stadiums with a greater chance of winning than Mark Richt. In fact according to some great research by Phil Steele (via Blutarsky) it appears that Georgia has the second best road winning percentage over the last decade (the Richt era plus one Donnan year) in the nation, behind only Texas. Georgia has only 6 true road losses in that span (Jacksonville obviously being another situation altogether).

I also heard from ESPN Radio’s Colin Cowherd today that Vegas pays an unusual amount of attention to home and away factors in setting their odds. Whereas the home team always gets three points in the NFL, Vegas has figured that three points isn’t significant enough for some teams in college. In fact Virginia Tech and Boise St. both get six points in Vegas just for taking their home field. Florida and LSU get five points as do a handful of Big 10 teams (which I don’t understand at all- I could have sworn their fans confused football etiquette for golf etiquette.)

That brings me back to more interesting stats from Phil Steele. After figuring out which teams had the greatest road winning percentages he looked at which teams benefit most from playing at home by subtracting their road winning percentage from their home winning percentage. If it’s a big number the home crowd is a huge boost. On average home teams have a 23.7% better chance of winning at home than on the road. But not the Dawgs. They are quite the outliers. Georgia is the only team in the nation that has a greater chance of winning when they are away from home than playing before their own fans.

The Dawgs tend to play well in white in front of crowds not in red.

Now before season ticket holders get too worked up the Dawgs home winning percentage of 83% is pretty outstanding. It’s not elite, but it’s good. But the chances are actually 2% better to win on the road.

I would love to know how Vegas handles the Dawgs. When the Dawgs played in Death Valley last fall or when they travel to Knoxville every other year do those home teams still get the same points? If so, and you’re a gambler, take the Dawgs on the road, especially when they’re underdogs. Vegas survives by knowing this stuff when no one else does. Georgia’s road record is surely no secret in the desert.

Regardless of Vegas’ view of Georgia, Mark Richt’s success on the road in the SEC means the Dawgs have a fighters chance on any given year. Richt now has a win in every SEC stadium (except UF, for obvious reasons) and the Georgia players have no reason to fear when entering any stadium. Even newly renovated ones in Oklahoma.